Betting & odds
Value
Value exists when the odds on offer are longer than the runner's real probability of winning warrants. It is a statement about price, not about likelihood: a $26 chance can be value and a $1.60 favourite can be poor value at the same time. Because every market carries a bookmaker margin, finding value requires a probability estimate that is genuinely better than the market's, not merely different from it.
In use
A runner with a true 20% chance is value at anything above $5.00 and poor value below it.
On FormRace
FormRace shows a model price beside the market price on every runner so the gap is visible without arithmetic.
Related terms
Expected Value (EV)The average return a bet would produce if repeated indefinitely.Fair OddsThe price a runner's true probability justifies, with no margin added.Implied ProbabilityThe chance a market price represents, before margin.False FavouriteThe shortest-priced runner in a race that does not deserve to be.