Betting & odds
Fair Odds
Fair odds are the price corresponding exactly to a runner's estimated true chance, with no bookmaker margin included — the reciprocal of the estimated probability. A horse assessed at a 25% chance has fair odds of $4.00. Comparing fair odds with the market price is how value is identified: a price above fair odds is an overlay, and below it an underlay.
In use
A 20% chance has fair odds of $5.00, so $6.50 on offer is an overlay.
On FormRace
FormRace publishes a model fair price on every runner in Pro, shown against the live market price.
Related terms
Implied ProbabilityThe chance a market price represents, before margin.OverroundThe margin built into a market, measured as the sum of implied probabilities.ValueA price longer than the runner's true chance justifies.Expected Value (EV)The average return a bet would produce if repeated indefinitely.