Form & performance
False Favourite
A false favourite is the runner the market has bet shortest where the evidence says the price is wrong. False favourites arise from recency bias after an impressive but shallow win, from reputation attaching to a well-known stable or rider, and from market momentum, where shortening attracts more money regardless of the original reason. Identifying one does not mean the horse will lose — it means the market is overconfident, and the value has moved to the other runners.
In use
A maiden graduate stepping up two classes and drawn wide is the classic profile.
On FormRace
FormRace scores every market favourite on four checks — model versus market price, how split the market is, a wide gate over a sprint trip, and the projected race shape — and publishes how flagged favourites actually performed.