Intelligence Analytics
Signal quality, feature importance, and historical calibration
How Does FormRace's Racing Intelligence Perform?
Across 15,048 Australian flat races in a historical walk-forward backtest (Nov 2025 – Jul 2026), the model's top-rated runner won 31.1% of races. The starting-price favourite won 34.7% of the same races. The model is therefore 3.6 points behind the market on raw strike rate, and backing its top pick flat returned -17.1%. It beat the favourite in 1 of 9 months — best in Dec 2025, worst drawdown in Apr 2026 at −$528.3 flat units. A missing-odds fallback in that test could use post-race prices; a clean rerun is pending.
Where the ratings do earn their place: the winner sits inside the model's top two runners in 50.2% of races and its top pick places 62.9% of the time — enough to cut a 12-runner field down to a short list in seconds, across 94 features per runner you would otherwise read by hand. Use it to spend your attention well, not to outsource the bet.
Frequently Asked Questions
How should I read FormRace's racing intelligence?
As research, not as a promised winner. Across 15,048 walk-forward races (Nov 2025 – Jul 2026) the model's top-rated runner won 31.1% of races while the starting-price favourite won 34.7% of the same races. The model is behind the market by 3.6 points overall and beat the favourite in 1 of 9 months. Use the ratings to narrow a field and to see where price and probability disagree — not as a betting instruction.
What data goes into a FormRace intelligence brief?
The default served model uses 94 inputs across 20 groups: market price and movement, pace projection, weight, barrier, class, distance, ratings, jockey and trainer signals, and race context. Sectionals and form are available as research context but are not all inputs to this artifact.
Does FormRace tell you which bets to place?
No. The value-bet gate is retired pending validation and the board does not recommend a stake. An older retrospective false-favourite sample had 26.3% favourite wins in the suspect band versus 32.7% overall, but the current board needs fresh outcome validation. Where to bet is your call.
How is FormRace different from horse racing analysis sheets?
A tip sheet gives you a selection. FormRace gives you the working: the model's probability beside the market's price, the reasons a favourite looks vulnerable, sectional and pace evidence, live market movement, and a public post-race record of what the board said before the jump. You can disagree with it and see why.
Is FormRace's model backtested honestly?
The historical backtest used chronological monthly holdouts and the same races for model and favourite. A later audit found that missing pre-race odds could be filled from post-race prices, so these figures need a clean point-in-time rerun. Flat-stake ROI is a $1 win bet at the settled price. A separate earlier "+24.1% ROI" claim was withdrawn after an invalid test.