Intelligence Analytics
Signal quality, feature importance, and historical calibration
How Does FormRace's Racing Intelligence Perform?
Over 2,798 races analysed from July 2025 to March 2026, FormRace's intelligence engine achieved an average primary-signal win rate of 15.6% and a market-opportunity ROI of +24.1%. The engine analyses 79+ features per runner — including recent form, weight, barrier draw, class changes, track conditions, jockey-trainer strike rates, and real-time market movements — to generate signal strength for every runner in every Australian thoroughbred race. Total flat-stake P&L across the backtest period was +$133.4, with a maximum single-month drawdown of $-79.7.
Market opportunities are identified when the model-implied probability exceeds the implied market odds by 20% or more. This systematic approach — combining model signals with real-time bookmaker odds — returned +24.1% ROI on flagged opportunities across 2,798 races, including months where the model underperformed. All figures below are from genuine backtests; we report losing months transparently.
Frequently Asked Questions
How should I read FormRace's racing intelligence?
FormRace publishes signal-performance metrics so users can judge the quality of the read, not treat it as a promised winner. Over 2,798 races analysed from July 2025 to March 2026, the primary signal achieved an average win rate of 15.6% and market-opportunity ROI of 24.1%. Performance varies month to month; we publish full backtest data transparently, including losing months.
What data goes into a FormRace intelligence brief?
The engine analyses 79+ features per runner including recent form lines, weight carried, barrier draw statistics, class changes, track condition preferences, jockey and trainer strike rates, jockey-trainer combination history, distance aptitude, days since last start, and real-time market odds movements. Features are engineered from historical Racing Australia data and live bookmaker feeds.
How does FormRace detect market opportunities?
FormRace compares the model-implied probability for each runner against the current market odds from Australian bookmakers. When the signal is materially stronger than the odds imply, the runner is flagged as a market opportunity. This approach returned 24.1% ROI on flagged opportunities across our backtest period.
How is FormRace different from horse racing tip sheets?
FormRace combines transparent model signals, real-time odds comparison, automated market-opportunity detection, market mover alerts, data-confidence checks, and LLM-powered race narratives in a single intelligence platform. Traditional tip sheets usually publish selections without showing signal quality, uncertainty, or methodology.
Is FormRace's signal engine backtested?
Yes. All performance figures on this page are from genuine backtests run against historical race data from July 2025 to March 2026, covering 2,798 races across all Australian thoroughbred meetings. We report both profitable and losing months transparently. The backtest uses flat $10 stakes for baseline P&L and Kelly-criterion-adjusted stakes for market-opportunity P&L.