Every race. Every result. Published.
Walk-forward backtest across 15,048 Australian flat races, measured against the one benchmark that matters: the market favourite.
Model Top Pick
31.1%
15,048 races
Market Favourite
34.7%
Same races, same period
Gap vs Favourite
−3.6
Points. We are behind.
Flat-Stake ROI
-17.1%
Backing every top pick blind
Read this before you read anything else on the site.
The model does not beat the market. Over 15,048 back-tested races the starting-price favourite won more often than our top-rated runner, and flat staking lost money. Any racing product telling you otherwise is quoting a number it cannot reproduce on races it has not seen.
What FormRace is actually for: reading 391 features per runner across every AU flat meeting so you do not have to, surfacing the races where price and probability genuinely disagree, and settling every call in public afterwards. The judgement stays yours.
We previously published a “+24.1% ROI over 2,798 races” figure. An internal audit found it was produced by a broken backtest and it has been removed from the product. The numbers on this page replace it.
Live — settled races
Not enough settled races with a priced market to publish a live window yet. The backtest above is the current record.
Top-pick strike rate vs the market favourite
% of races won · same races both seriesWhat backing every top pick would have returned
Flat $1 win bet · % return on turnoverWalk-forward test, Nov 2025 – Jul 2026. The favourite baseline is measured on the same races. Every value is also in the table below, so nothing here is gated behind a hover.
Month by month
Nov 2025 – Jul 2026| Month | Races | Model Top Pick | Favourite | Top-3 Place | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | 1,996 | 32.8% | 35.5% | 66.8% | -11.1% |
| Dec 2025 | 1,738 | 33.4% | 33.4% | 67.2% | -15.0% |
| Jan 2026 | 1,567 | 35.2% | 36.1% | 68.8% | -8.7% |
| Feb 2026 | 1,558 | 35.2% | 36.9% | 68.7% | -11.9% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,788 | 32.1% | 36.0% | 62.5% | -14.2% |
| Apr 2026 | 1,677 | 25.3% | 34.6% | 55.3% | -35.2% |
| May 2026 | 1,736 | 26.4% | 32.3% | 57.0% | -27.3% |
| Jun 2026 | 1,612 | 26.7% | 33.8% | 54.5% | -18.1% |
| Jul 2026 | 1,376 | 33.1% | 34.1% | 65.0% | -10.2% |
Model top-pick and favourite strike rates are computed on the same races. Flat ROI is a $1 win bet on the model's top pick in every race at the settled price. Green means the model beat the favourite that month.
Top-3 place rate
62.9%
How often the model's top-rated runner finishes in the first three. Useful for narrowing a field before you form your own view.
Top-2 contains winner
50.2%
The winner is inside the model's top two runners in about half of all races — the strongest thing the ratings do.
Information vs market
-0.0109
Δη²: how much the model's probabilities explain race outcomes beyond the public odds. Negative means the market alone is still better informed. We track it publicly.
Methodology
An XGBoost ranker and classifier trained on Australian thoroughbred flat racing, reading 391 engineered features per runner across 32 groups — form, sectionals, pace projection, class, barrier, weight, jockey and trainer records, gear and stewards' notes, track condition history, and live market movement. Probabilities are isotonic-calibrated and blended with the public market before ratings are served.
Validation is walk-forward: for each test month the model is trained only on races that finished before it, so no result can inform its own prediction. The favourite baseline uses the same race set. Races without a genuine market price are excluded from both the model and favourite figures, never from just one.
Every figure on this page is generated directly from the backtest report file — there are no hand-typed performance numbers on the site. Historical racing performance does not predict future results, and nothing here is betting advice.
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