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Compare vulnerable favourites, credible challengers and races to leave alone—with the form, pace and price behind each assessment. Start with one complete race analysis, no account needed.
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- Favourite checks
- 4
- Simulations / race
- 10k
Explore the evidence before you subscribe. A flag is a reason to investigate a race, not a guarantee about its result.
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FormRace Pro. Bring your race research together.
Free
A$0
forever · no card
The card, the prices and the record. No card of yours required.
- ✓Every AU flat card — runners, barriers, weights, riders
- ✓Live market prices and every result
- ✓The morning briefing on which meetings matter
- ✓The full public record, losing months included
Pro
A$49
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Compare form, sectionals, pace and market movement in one place across Australian thoroughbred flat racing, with the evidence behind each rating.
- ✓Compare finishing sectionals with the speed map and expected pace
- ✓See why a favourite warrants a closer look — 4 checks with reasons
- ✓Follow late price changes and market movers with PULSE
- ✓Model probability and fair price on every runner — a second opinion, not a tip
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Daily race intelligence brief
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Get the free daily briefing with the meetings and races worth opening, then inspect the evidence for yourself.
Informational racing intelligence only. FormRace does not accept wagers or provide gambling services.
Today's false-favourite watch
The favourites our model thinks are vulnerable.
Each race's public favourite is scored on how far our model's price sits from the market's, how split the market is, the barrier over sprint trips, and the pace the race is likely to be run at. We only surface the suspect band and above.
Measured, not asserted: over 1,895 settled races, favourites in the suspect band won 26.3% against a 32.7% base rate (-6.4 pts, n=293). The weaker “watch” band showed no signal in the same test and is no longer surfaced.
Favourites are scored once today's markets open — new scores publish hourly from the first price feed. While you wait, see how yesterday's flags played out.
Refreshes hourly · Scoring starts when markets open
View today's full board →Pro today
For Pro: today's shortlist
How it works
Ninety races in. A short list out.
01
Every runner gets read
Each AU flat meeting, each runner: 94 default model inputs covering market price, pace shape, barrier, weight, class, ratings and race context.
02
The card gets cut down
4 checks run against the favourite in every race. The ones that fail come back to you as a short list, with the reason attached.
03
Every call gets settled
Win or lose, each pick lands on the receipts page with its price and finishing position. Nothing quietly disappears on a bad Saturday.
What you get
Four things that make Saturday smaller, opened before the first jump.
Pro
Form, sectionals, speed map, pace
The workshop on every AU flat race: full form lines, last 400/600, who leads and who comes from behind. This is what used to leak on Free — it is why people who already do the work pay.
Today's meetings →Pro
False-favourite detection
The one signal we can show beating its baseline: 4 checks run on the favourite in every race. Across 1,895 scored races, favourites flagged suspect won 26.3% against a 32.7% baseline. You get which checks fired. That is a reason to look closer, not a horse to back.
Today's flagged races →Pro
PULSE — market mover alerts
When a price shortens hard, somebody knows something. PULSE watches live market movement across every AU flat meeting and surfaces the moves worth a second look — steamers, plunges and late money, while the price is still there.
Today's movers →Pro
Model probability beside the market
Every runner gets a win probability from 94 inputs, shown next to the live price. Use it as a second opinion. We do not claim this beats the favourite — the public record is on the site so you can audit us.
Today's ratings →The 4 checks, and what each one tests
These are the checks that carry weight in the score. Drift, class rises, cold stables, first-up runs and going are computed and shown to you as context, but they move nothing until each has been measured against results. Four that work beat fifteen that sound good.
| Check | What it tests | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | How far the model's own price sits from the market's on the favourite. | A favourite the model rates a $4.50 chance while the board says $2.80 is either a mispriced horse or a wrong model. We publish which it turns out to be. |
| Market split | Whether the money is convinced, or spread across the top two. | A short price that the market itself is arguing about is a weaker favourite than the odds suggest. |
| Barrier vs trip | A wide gate over a sub-1400m sprint. | Over a short trip there is no time to cross. Wide and hot means the favourite pays for the run before the turn. |
| Race shape | Whether the projected pace suits the way this horse needs to be ridden. | A one-paced leader in a race with three other on-pace runners gets a race it cannot win from. |
- Inputs per runner
- 94Inputs per runner
- Races back-tested
- 15,048Races back-tested
- Favourite screen
- 4-checkFavourite screen
- Money-back guarantee
- 7-dayMoney-back guarantee
The receipts
Anyone can show you their winners. This is the whole record.
Model vs market
Our top pick against the market favourite, on the same races.
31.1%
Model top pick wins
34.7%
Market favourite wins
-3.6 pts
Gap vs favourite
15,048
Races tested
Price-provenance recheck pending.
In the historical test, backing the model's top pick blind lost money: flat staking returned -17.1% across 15,048 races. FormRace is not a tip sheet. It is a research board: it tells you which races are worth your time, where the market's price and the model's probability disagree, and what happened last time it said the same thing. The older backtest needs a clean point-in-time price rerun.
Frequently asked
The answers people want before they pay.
Worth reading
All articles →Read one race. Decide whether the full board is for you.
Free covers the card and the prices on every AU meeting, every result and the full public record. Compare form, sectionals, pace and market movement in one place across Australian thoroughbred flat racing, with the evidence behind each rating.
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