Everything worth asking before you pay us anything.

A false favourite is the runner the public has bet shortest but where the evidence says the price is wrong. FormRace scores every favourite on 4 checks that have been tested against results: how far the model's own price sits from the market's, how split the market is between the top two, a wide gate over a sprint trip, and the pace the race is likely to be run at. Other signals — drift, class rises, cold stables, first-up runs, track conditions — are computed and shown to you as context, but they carry no weight in the score until each one has been measured against outcomes. We would rather publish four checks that work than fifteen that sound good. A flag is a reason to look closer, not a prediction.

It has been scored on 1,895 settled races over a 120-day window. Favourites flagged suspect won 26.3% of the time against a 32.7% baseline for favourites generally — 6.4 points worse, which is the gap the product is built on. The lighter watch band (1,160 races, 34.3%) does not beat the baseline, and we say so rather than folding it into a single headline number. 293 suspect races is a small sample and we publish it as one.

No, and we lead with it. Across 15,048 AU flat races in a walk-forward backtest the model's top-rated runner won 31.1% while the market favourite won 34.7% of the same races, and flat-staking our top pick returned -17.1%. The winner is inside our top two 50.2% of the time. Our edge is not in naming the most likely winner — it is in identifying when the favourite is beatable. Month-by-month figures are on the transparency report and every settled pick is on the public receipts page.

There is a free plan and it needs no card. Free opens the card for every AU thoroughbred flat meeting — runners, barriers, weights, jockeys and trainers, live market prices — plus every result, the morning briefing and the full public model record including the losing months. The analytical layer is Pro: form lines, sectionals, speed maps, model ratings, the false-favourite verdict, market movers and the daily tip sheet.

Free is the racebook and the receipts — what is running, at what price, where it finished, and how our model has performed. Pro is everything computed on top of that: model win probabilities and fair prices on every runner, the 4-check false-favourite verdict with the reasons attached, sectionals and speed maps, PULSE market-mover alerts, and the daily tip sheet with top three plus a roughie for every race. Pro is A$49 a month.

Neither. FormRace is a race intelligence platform. We do not accept wagers, hold accounts, process money or settle bets — you bet with whichever bookmaker or exchange you choose, if you choose to at all. And we do not simply tell you which horse to back: we show you where the model disagrees with the market, why a favourite looks suspect, and which challengers carry value. The read is yours.

AU thoroughbred flat racing only — every metro, provincial and country meeting, from a Saturday Group 1 at Flemington to a Tuesday at Werribee. We do not cover harness racing, greyhounds, jumps or international racing.

An XGBoost gradient-boosting model reads 407 inputs per runner across 34 groups — form and margins, sectional splits, projected pace, barrier, class movement, jockey and trainer records at the track and trip, track bias, pedigree and live market movement. It outputs a win probability for every horse, which you compare against the market price to find an overlay. It is tested walk-forward: for each test month it is trained only on races that had already finished.

Live odds and market moves stream in real time. Predictions and false-favourite scores refresh through the day for races approaching their jump, and again instantly when a major signal — steam, plunge, drift — trips. The model itself retrains on new results nightly and is rebuilt from scratch weekly, so track bias, jockey form and market behaviour stay current.

PULSE is the market-mover layer. It watches live betting movement across every AU flat meeting and flags the moves that matter — a horse shortening hard, late money arriving, a favourite drifting — so you see the shift while the price is still available rather than after it has gone. It is a Pro feature.

There is no free Pro trial — we would rather not ask for a card to hand one back. Instead the free plan is open with no card at all, the entire model track record is public before you pay anything, and Pro carries a 7-day money-back guarantee on your first payment. If it is not worth A$49 in the first week, ask and you get it back.

Yes to both. Pro is A$49 a month with no lock-in — cancel from your account page and keep access to the end of the billing period. If racing is just quiet for you, pause billing for up to four months instead: the account stays alive on the free plan and resumes without signing up again. Cancel within 7 days of a first payment and it is refunded in full.

Yes, though it assumes you want to read a race rather than be handed a selection. The daily briefing and the tip sheet are plain English, and the glossary defines every Australian racing term the site uses, one page per term. What FormRace will not do is hide the reasoning: a false-favourite verdict shows you which of the 4 checks fired and why, because a flag you cannot interrogate is worth nothing.

FormRace is an information and analysis tool, not a gambling service, and it is for over-18s. We do not accept wagers or take a cut of any bet you place. Set limits, never bet more than you can afford to lose, and if gambling is causing you harm call Gambling Help Australia on 1800 858 858 — free, confidential, 24 hours.