Caulfield Race Intelligence
Every Caulfield runner scored on 391 inputs and re-read through the day as the money moves — with 4 checks run against the favourite before we call the race. Free to open, no card.
Today's Intelligence — Caulfield
Full racecards →Caulfield Racecourse Overview
Caulfield Racecourse is a left-handed circuit in Melbourne's south-eastern suburbs, famed for its tight turns and tight finish. The 1800m starting point and sharp home turn reward handy barrier draws and forward-running horses. Caulfield's spring carnival is the launching pad for Melbourne Cup contenders via the Caulfield Cup.
Feature Races
- Caulfield Cup
- Caulfield Guineas
- Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes
- Toorak Handicap
FormRace covers all Caulfield meetings year-round with full model coverage and market-alignment context.
How FormRace Generates Caulfield Intelligence
Every Caulfield race brief is generated by a four-stage machine learning pipeline that analyses field conditions, form data, market signals, and live race information.
391 features per runner
Each horse is profiled on recent form, weight, barrier draw, track and distance aptitude, days since last run, jockey and trainer win rates, and real-time market odds movements.
XGBoost Gradient Boosting
An ensemble gradient-boosted model ranks every runner by signal strength. Predictions refresh through the day as live money moves, and the model retrains on the night's results before the next card.
Monte Carlo Simulation
10,000 race simulations per event estimate opportunity probabilities and calibrate confidence. Runners are only flagged when the model-implied probability sits at least 30% above the market price and the simulation agrees.
The Model's Case
The evidence behind the top-rated runner, stated in plain English and derived straight from the fields the model scored — sectionals, pace, barrier, class, weight and connections. No language model writes it, so every line is reproducible from the same row.
Nov 2025 – Jul 2026 walk-forward test — the model trails the market favourite by 3.6 points and we publish it. Full performance data →
Frequently Asked Questions
How does FormRace's model work for Caulfield?
FormRace analyses 391 features per runner including form, barrier, track conditions, jockey and trainer stats, and live market odds using an XGBoost model. Signals refresh through racing hours as the market moves. Runners are flagged when the modelled probability sits materially above the market price.
When is Caulfield intelligence available?
Race intelligence is generated as soon as final fields are declared — typically the morning of race day. The model refreshes through the day as it takes in live odds movement and same-day results from earlier races.
Is FormRace free for Caulfield races?
The free tier opens full form, sectionals and speed maps at Caulfield on every race day, plus the daily briefing. Pro ($49/month) adds the daily tip sheet, per-runner model probabilities, fair prices, market-alignment detection and the model's case for its pick.
How reliable are the Caulfield signals?
Across 15,048 AU races (Nov 2025 – Jul 2026) the top-rated runner won 31.1% of races against 34.7% for the market favourite on the same races, and flat staking returned -17.1%. Use the ratings to narrow a field, not as a betting instruction. Full methodology and month-by-month results are on the model track record page.
Business Compliance
FormRace is subscription racing-intelligence software for analytics, model ratings, and educational research. We do not accept wagers, process wagering transactions, hold customer gambling balances, operate a sportsbook, or act as a gambling intermediary.
Open Caulfield free, before the first jump
Live race grid, full form and sectionals, no card. Pro adds the daily tip sheet plus the model probability and fair price on every runner.