Caulfield Race Intelligence
Every Caulfield runner scored on 94 inputs and re-read through the day as the money moves — with 4 checks run against the favourite before we call the race. Free to open, no card.
Today's Intelligence — Caulfield
Full racecards →Caulfield Racecourse Overview
Caulfield Racecourse is a left-handed circuit in Melbourne's south-eastern suburbs, famed for its tight turns and tight finish. The 1800m starting point and sharp home turn reward handy barrier draws and forward-running horses. Caulfield's spring carnival is the launching pad for Melbourne Cup contenders via the Caulfield Cup.
Feature Races
- Caulfield Cup
- Caulfield Guineas
- Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes
- Toorak Handicap
FormRace covers all Caulfield meetings year-round with full model coverage and market-alignment context.
Caulfield track bias
| Hand | Straight | Suits | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Left-handed | Tight | On-pace | The tight home turn makes a handy barrier and a forward position worth more than they are on a long straight. |
Course shape, not a same-day rail map. Recent Caulfield results · Horses · Jockeys
How FormRace Generates Caulfield Intelligence
Every Caulfield race brief is generated by a four-stage machine learning pipeline that analyses field conditions, form data, market signals, and live race information.
94 features per runner
Each horse is profiled on recent form, weight, barrier draw, track and distance aptitude, days since last run, jockey and trainer win rates, and real-time market odds movements.
XGBoost Gradient Boosting
An ensemble gradient-boosted model ranks each runner by signal strength. Predictions refresh as inputs change; new models must pass a separate chronological evaluation before promotion.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Race simulations explore the distribution of possible finishes using calibrated model probabilities. Confidence also requires recent results from the same model and verified input coverage; actionable price comparisons require fresh quotes.
The Model's Case
The evidence behind the top-rated runner, stated in plain English and derived straight from the fields the model scored — sectionals, pace, barrier, class, weight and connections. No language model writes it, so every line is reproducible from the same row.
Nov 2025 – Jul 2026 walk-forward test — the model trails the market favourite by 3.6 points and we publish it. Full performance data →
Frequently Asked Questions
How does FormRace's model work for Caulfield?
The default XGBoost model uses 94 inputs per runner, including market price, pace, barrier, weight, class and ratings. Predictions refresh during racing hours. Price disagreements invite a closer look but are not validated betting signals.
When is Caulfield intelligence available?
Race intelligence is generated as soon as final fields are declared — typically the morning of race day. The model refreshes through the day as it takes in live odds movement and same-day results from earlier races.
Is FormRace free for Caulfield races?
The free tier opens the live grid, live prices and every result at Caulfield on every race day, plus the daily briefing. Pro ($49/month) adds full form, sectionals and speed maps, the daily tip sheet, per-runner model probabilities, fair prices, market-alignment detection and the model's case for its pick.
How reliable are the Caulfield signals?
Across 15,048 AU races (Nov 2025 – Jul 2026) the top-rated runner won 31.1% of races against 34.7% for the market favourite on the same races, and flat staking returned -17.1%. Use the ratings to narrow a field, not as a betting instruction. Full methodology and month-by-month results are on the model track record page.
Business Compliance
FormRace is subscription racing-intelligence software for analytics, model ratings, and educational research. We do not accept wagers, process wagering transactions, hold customer gambling balances, operate a sportsbook, or act as a gambling intermediary.
Open Caulfield free, before the first jump
Live race grid, live prices and every result, no card. Pro adds full form, sectionals and speed maps, the daily tip sheet, and the model probability and fair price on every runner.